In an article published in early July 2019, Christine Lagarde, today President of the European Central Bank (ECB), commenting on what we learned from the 2008 crisis, spoke about the environment as one of the problems that could trigger a new economic crisis.
Covid-19, the result of man’s terrible relationship with the environmental space, took the lead in the 2019/20 climate crisis. Global warming has added a devastating pandemic.
In mid-2020, in the middle of a pandemic, Lagarde said that a transition to a low-carbon economy, although very relevant, should be carried out carefully, given the possibility that an abrupt rupture in the current system would have the potential to shake up the economic fundamentals . Still, she estimated that the European Union would need around 470 billion euros annually to achieve the climate and environmental policy goals. It is not a little.
Around here, in 2019, we were able to follow from President Bolsonaro, a drastic reduction in the mechanism for monitoring deforestation and fires. This measure was largely due to the automatic alignment of two presidents, Bolsonaro and Donald Trump.
Trump neglected the environment, even coming out of the Paris Agreement, with a strong reason. He wanted to protect the polluter and traditional American industry. He had economic success, Trump practically zeroed unemployment before the pandemic.
However, in Brazil, it would not be justified to seek the same path. Fires and rampant deforestation damaged the image of an exporter of agricultural products. It should be emphasized that the image of the producers that meet the environmental rules must also be harmed.
As we read Christine Lagarde’s speech, combining it with Trump’s actions, which supported the growth of the American economy, we concluded that it will take great skill in economic and environmental management to take advantage of all the growth potential that new technologies allow .
Tourism and pharmaceuticals, illustratively, are some points that could be expanded in the Amazon region instead of deforestation and fires.
In Brazil, complaints about the legal system have become very common. If something is not going well, the first excuse falls on labor, social or environmental legislation. Not that it is impossible to improve the legal environment, but the main Brazilian problem lies in the low quality of management and waste of all kinds.
As for President Bolsonaro’s speech at the Climate Summit, we see that this was marked by a strong shift in environmental management, but it was also surrounded by distrust. When you change so forcefully, it is natural for this to happen.
Along these lines, Bolsonaro argued for environmental preservation, but did not explain how to implement very short-term actions. He wouldn’t even have time.
It remained very evident that the invitation to Brazil was a kind of alert from the USA. Biden is aware of what will happen here in the period of 2021/22. We did not think that the new goals presented by Bolsonaro, are the points of expectation of Biden at the moment.
The detail of Bolsonaro being the 18th official to speak is also relevant. In diplomacy these nuances of discredit are very important.
On the other hand, the Climate Summit also served for the USA, in the figure of President Biden, to present a new milestone of environmental protagonism since the beginning of his mandate to the world.
It was a great lesson for the federal government that it should not align itself with people, like Trump, but with National States with counterparts. It remains to learn.
Cássio Faeddo. Attorney. Master in Law. MBA in International Relations. FGV / SP.
